According to political scientist Strahil Deliiski, erosion in the parliamentary majority can be expected from internal problems in GERB. A small signal for Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s intervention is the departure of Dzhema Grozdanova from the parliament. If something comes out, it will come out of there, he said.
For now, the party ranks seem homogeneous and if there is any danger from Tsvetanov, I would not exaggerate it, Ganev said.
Many factors affect the dynamics of the situation and the stability of the cabinet. We currently have a series of conflicts – we have a conflict from below – the protest, the government’s institutional conflict with the presidency, an internal conflict with the resignations of the three ministers, whose status has not yet been clarified, and some vague communication with the US embassy.
These conflicts must be contained in order for the cabinet to work. If Borissov wants to stay, he will have to put up with too much. I am not sure that he has this attitude, said Strahil Deliiski.
In my opinion, the most important factor is one of these conflicts – the protest. In my personal opinion, there is already a change in the protest – it is no longer what started. In the beginning there were Ninova, Manolova and Radev. If Ninova is there today, she risks being booed, there is a verbal one against Manolova, and if Radev goes down to the protesters today, I am not sure that he will be greeted like a week ago.
The protest began to encapsulate around the liberal urban community. They are very keen to keep this protest pure – not to color them in any way. The only legitimate player on this field so far remains Hristo Ivanov, but this may change, commented Dimitar Ganev.
According to him, even if the protest achieves one of its goals – the resignation of the government, for the second main goal – the resignation of the chief prosecutor, “it will meet a wall”.
According to Dimitar Ganev, in a quick election the advantage will be on Borissov’s side, the BSP will be “caught in white pants”, and Maya Manolova and Slavi Trifonov are not ready enough. At the moment, the horizon is for regular elections with serious changes in the government, Ganev said.