Madrid. Spain and Italy will be the hardest hit economically developed countries by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), quoted by the Spanish edition El Pais.
Spain’s output is projected to shrink by 12.8% this year, the largest decline since the country’s civil war in 1936-1939. The Italian economy is also expected to fall by 12.8%, followed by France. close to 12.5%.
Spain’s expected production for 2020 is already nearly five percentage points lower than what the IMF forecast in April. On the other hand, in 2021 the Spanish economy is expected to recover by 6.3%, compared to 4.3% in April.
On Wednesday, the IMF released its latest update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO), which revised its April forecast downwards, as “the Covid-19 pandemic had a more negative impact on operations in the first half of 2020 than expected, and the recovery is expected to be more gradual than the previous forecast. ”
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez commented on the IMF report, saying “economic forecasts predict a dark horizon”.
Global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April forecast, but figures vary considerably by region and country. In the euro area, production is expected to decline by 10.2%, with Spain, Italy and France surpassing that figure and the UK equalizing.
The expected contraction of the Spanish economy of 12.8% represents the largest decline since the Civil War, when production fell by 26.8%. It is even bigger than the accumulated contraction in the years that Spain struggled with the Great Recession that began in 2008.
In perspective, the contraction represents about 160 billion euros, calculated as gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2019. This is more money that the Spanish state paid in 2019 for public pensions.
In 2021, the Spanish economy is expected to grow by 6.3%, the same as Italy and the UK. Only France, with a 7.3% jump in production, will overtake them, according to the latest IMF forecast.
The Spanish government in May expected a more moderate contraction of 9.2% for 2020 and 6.8% recovery for 2021.
Translation and editing: Ivan Hristov