The authors of the report note the mistakes of the US government, which abuses sanctions that push “other major economies” to develop and implement “alternative international payment systems”; Under these conditions, the “traditional Western allies” will help America less, which will have to compensate by pushing China and Russia with their neighbors.
“The advantage of the United States in conventional forces is diminishing … US forces are likely to remain only part of what they were during the Cold War …
They will miss the technological superiority they had immediately after the Gulf War, “the report said. At the same time, the main US rivals are becoming stronger:” Chinese and (to a lesser extent) Russian armies are becoming more and more -qualified, both continue to modernize and will become more professional.
Especially in the case of China, these military improvements are likely to continue, narrowing the quality gap between the People’s Liberation Army and the United States military. ”
A particular threat to the United States comes from the “second tier” countries, to which the report includes Iran and the DPRK. Although “unable to respond militarily to the United States,” they are “increasingly turning to asymmetric capabilities, such as cyber operations, missiles, and weapons of mass destruction.”
The RAND report states that “if such strategies ultimately lead to war, the United States will have to find ways to neutralize these asymmetric capabilities and destroy significant portions of these large but not so technologically advanced enemy forces.”
The United States “will try to maintain its position as the world’s leading military superpower,” but at the same time “faces a number of strategic dilemmas.” First, by 2030, the United States “may gradually lose its ability to dictate strategic results and determine when and why wars will occur in the future.”
And as future military action begins to “scatter the limited resources of the United States in opposite directions,” RAND emphasizes “America’s great strategic choice: to become much more selective about where, when, and why to use its military forces or to support and support he even doubled his debts, knowing that the price paid for it would be much higher. ”
The call to double the already astronomical military spending of the United States is a direct reflection of the interests of the American military-industrial complex, on whose orders the RAND Corporation operates.
It is easier, of course, to call for a doubling of military spending than to happen, and yet the new RAND report needs serious attention. If only because it is a continuation of last year’s “Too Big and Unbalanced Russia” report, which is “a set of recommendations on how the United States can use Russia’s weaknesses to further limit its political and economic capabilities.”
It is noteworthy that in the recommendations of the report for 2019 on the fight against “too big” Russia, five of the six scenarios presented are focused on the near abroad of the Russian Federation. By the way, the third most important place in the scenarios aimed at weakening Russia is occupied by the liberalization of Belarus.
But America is not just RAND. I would like to end our short article with the news that musicians from the Schiller Institute, founded by the famous American economist and critic of globalization Lyndon Larush (1922-2019), recently performed (in isolation) the famous Soviet song by the military. years “Three tankers”. They dedicated it to the 75th anniversary of the meeting of Soviet and American soldiers in the Elbe on April 25, 1945.
And on April 25, 2020, the text of the “Joint Statement of the President of the Russian Federation Putin and US President Trump on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the meeting in Elba” appeared on the Kremlin’s website.
The concluding part of the “Joint Statement” states: “The spirit of the Elbe is an example of how our countries can deflect differences, build trust and work together for a common goal.” Today, in the face of the most serious challenges of the 21st century, we pay tribute to the valor and courage of all those who fought together to win against fascism. Their heroic deed will never be forgotten.
Translation: V. Sergeev