Unemployment benefits, $ 490 billion for small businesses, the Federal Reserve allocated 2.5 trillion. dollars for domestic and global markets. The fear of overcrowded hospitals and the danger that millions would die has almost disappeared.
But two months after the onset of the worst pandemic in the era of globalization, the United States has won neither the economic nor the health war. Many analysts fear that the country has at best managed to save itself the darkest scenarios.
For each place where the number of cases decreases, new outbreaks appear; in states like Wisconsin, bars are open and crowded, others – like Maryland – are under strict restrictions. There is no single testing plan to show what is happening anywhere, Reuters reports.
Between 1,000 and 2,000 people die every day, and between 20,000 and 25,000 are infected.
If there is agreement on anything, it is that the road to normalizing social and economic life will be long and will take more money and effort than previously thought.
The country has not taken either of the two main paths – accepting mass deaths in hopes of creating “herd immunity” or severe restrictions to eradicate the virus, according to Hardware economist James Stoke. This means that there is no clear way to deal with economic problems.
“I’m afraid we’ll just hang in. We’ll open up at a different pace, not in a smart way, there will be months where unemployment will stay at 15% or 20%,” he said.
“It is possible that the number of deaths per day will remain at the current level indefinitely, fluctuating up and down as the epidemic moves to different parts of the country. The social distancing we are prepared to endure will not help much.”
Nobel laureate in economics
Postponed sporting and other mass events, the closure of restaurants and shops have affected the spread of the disease and softened initial pessimistic estimates that 2 million people could die. The death toll by Saturday was 87,000, expected to exceed 135,000 in early August. After the initial delay by the federal government, testing has stepped up to 1.5-2 million tests a day. But experts say that’s only half of what is needed.
In more than a dozen states, the number of infected people continues to rise, and domestic violence is becoming more common, as are suicide attempts.
At the end of March, the CARES Act was considered sufficient aid to the economy – its aim was to replace people’s lost incomes and lend to small businesses, which are likely to be simplified. He has helped, but some of his deadlines for small businesses are approaching, and the aid will be paid by the end of July. The lower house of Congress recently passed a new version of the law, but it has yet to be approved by the Republican Senate.
In addition, in the second quarter, GDP will decline by 40% on an annual basis, and the budget deficit for the fiscal year will quadruple.