“Restrictive measures against the spread of coronavirus will lead to an unprecedented 40% year-on-year decline in US gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2020 and a slow recovery in the second half of the year,” the JPMorgan report said.
But economic growth in 2021 will be weaker than initially forecast, economists note, citing a separate report from the financial company. It cites reasons for the gloomier economic outlook, such as spending cuts by local and state governments and the likelihood that temporary cuts will become permanent.
The US economy will recover smoothly and gradually in the second half of this year, and US citizens who lost their jobs as a result of the closure of a number of businesses due to the pandemic in the last two months will start looking for work again. This means that they will be categorized as unemployed until they find a new job.
Also, a study by economics professors Alexander Bick and Adam Blendin, in collaboration with the Dallas Federal Reserve, found that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 24.8 percent in the week of May 10-16.