The Netherlands is entering a recession. But how bad is that crisis going to be? There is a significant chance that the economy will shrink more than in 2009. But there are also bright spots. </p><div> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--paragraph-text"> <p>The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) is all about it today: the Netherlands will in any case be faced with a recession as a result of the corona crisis.
CPB has made four scenarios to make a very cautious estimate of the economic blows that we can expect, depending on how long the corona measures (such as working from home and not going to the pub) will last. This is what these scenarios look like:
Scenario 1: Short but hard blow, then rapid growth again
In the most optimistic scenario, CPB assumes that the rules on contact restriction (or social distancing) will last a total of three months. Events, catering and the tourism sector suffer greatly from this.
In this scenario, the economy shrinks by 1.2 percent. The shrinkage is mainly in the first half of the year, after which it will pick up again. Due to the temporary emergency measures of the cabinet, the blows are not too bad; few people need to be fired. In 2021 we will again grow by 3.5 percent.
Unemployment is rising slightly in this scenario. This will amount to 4.5 percent in 2021. It is now at a low level: 2.9 percent.
Scenario 2: Bigger blow, then growth
It may also be the case that we do not have social distancing rules for three months, but six. Then the blows get harder. Not only the services sector, but industry is also struggling. Production stops in some places, so some factories do not have enough parts to make their products.
The economy will shrink by 5 percent in 2020. And will rise again to a growth of 3.8 percent in 2021.
This also has an effect on the labor market: some temporary contracts are not renewed and young people who have just graduated find it more difficult to find a job. About 5.3 percent will be unemployed at home in 2021.
</div> <div class="article-teaser-bar read-more"> <a href="https://www.rtlz.nl/algemeen/economie/video/5070811/cpb-economie-krijgt-een-flinke-dreun-door-de-coronacrisis" class="image-block-link"> <div class="box layout"> <figure class="[ layout__item tablet-4/12 desktop-4/12 desktoplarge-5/14 ] "> <div class=""> <img src="https://screenshots.rtl.nl/system/thumb/sz=165x93/uuid=625bf2be-88fa-4997-ad65-da591bf87af8" alt="CPB: economy is hit hard by the corona crisis."/> </div> </figure> <h2> <span class="articlebox__meta chapeau"> Also watch this interview with the CPB: </span> CPB: economy is hit hard by the corona crisis. </h2> </div> </a>