FORECAST: Chelsea – Bayern Munich


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Chelsea – Bayern Munich, the first Champions League semi-final game. Stamford Bridge Stadium, 10 pm Bulgarian time.

Possible formulations:

Chelsea: Cabiero, Rudiger, Christensen, Aspilicueta, James, Alonso, Georgio, Mount, Kovacic, Willian, Giroux
Injuries: Kant, Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi

Bayern Munich: Neuer, Boateng, Alaba, Pawar, Davis, Kimi, Tiago, Müller, Coman, Gnabri, Lewandowski
Injuries: Zule, Perisic, Martinez

Forecast on

Nearly eight years after the dramatic final of the Champions League in Munich, the two teams will once again measure strength in the tournament of the rich. Then Chelsea caused perhaps the greatest pain in the history of the Bavarians, defeating them in the middle of the Allianz Arena in a match that went under the dictators of the hosts, but the cup flew to London.

The current state of today’s rivals seriously tilts the balance in favor of Bayern, which has a much more experienced lineup and incredible firepower. Robert Lewandowski is the goal scorer of the 10-goal race, and overall the Bavarians have scored 24 goals in the group stage.

A full 18-point asset and a head-to-head difference (+19) meant Bayern was the strongest team in history when looking at group stage indicators. The team won their group 16 times, which is something that has been done more often than Barcelona (21 times).

Historically, this rivalry is fairly lean because the two teams played against each other in the quarterfinals of the 2005 tournament and the “Blue” won by a total margin of 6: 5. Bayern returned to this opponent somewhat in the 2013 Super Cup match in penalty shootout. So the balance is one win and two draws (in regular time).

Bayern are a real force out there because they have lost none of their last 12 away appearances in the Champions League, forging nine straight wins to set a club record. Only Manchester United (16 straight losses) and Ajax (14 straight losses) have longer runs in the tournament.

Chelsea, however, like to play against the Germans in the Euro tournaments, because their home ground does not lose in 9 games against Bundesliga teams. The wins over this time period are 6 – as much as “dry nets”. The elimination team balance at this stage of the tournament is 8 successes and five strikeouts.

Frank Lampard’s boys overcame Tottenham this weekend, but overall have only four wins in the last 12 Premier League rounds, while the Hans Flik alumni have won just one of their last 11 official matches and are definitely under par.

Both camps have reason to be concerned because Chelsea have been consistently missing out on the semifinals in their previous three World Cup appearances. This also happened to the Munich players last season against the future fullback Liverpool, which was Bayern’s earliest loss since 2011.

The Bavarians’ balance against the English elimination teams is 10 successes and six strikeouts, with the German Colossus in a series of five consecutive standings before leaving Liverpool. Warning: Bayern have only won two of the last six clashes on the Isles with the British, but both games were in London (7-2 over Tottenham and 5-1 over Arsenal).

Our expectations are for an extremely unbeaten match as the home advantage and the history of this rivalry should carry a serious weight, balancing the forces.

Result: Chelsea – Bayern Munich 2: 2

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