Syrian army in Idlib province of Syria Sochi Tensions in the region are at its peak due to the operations aimed at eliminating the HTŞ (Al Qaeda) and other terrorist groups included in the reconciliation. Erdogan’s Syrian army Idlib After the end of February ultimatum in order to retreat to the borders in September 2018 in its province, the negotiations that failed in Ankara last week moved to Moscow. However, the two-day talks seem to be fruitless.
New talks for Idlib and the impact of the USA We talked to Volkan Özdemir.
‘This issue can be resolved at the leaders’ summit in late February and early March’
Dr. Volkan Ozdemir, Idlib province in the framework of the Sochi agreement of the Syrian army in the territory of specifying you take back control of the half, Ankara’s ultimatum to spite Turkey and Russia, leaders of the end of February or March, early in the conviction could reach a conclusion by face to face interviews:
“We do not know the content of these interviews. Especially the Turkish side has more statements about the domestic public. These statements come from politicians. How much they reflect the truth is a separate issue. But there are two points we need to look at in our analysis from the data we have. The first is the fact that Moscow wants Syria to focus on the M4-M5 Highways within the framework of the Sochi agreement of 2018 and in this direction, the Syrian army has added 50 percent of Idlib to its territory in the last 2 months. On the other hand, if the regime forces are not withdrawn to their previous places by the end of the month, we will do what is necessary here. There were inter-delegation talks in Ankara last week, this week continued in Moscow. I think it is likely that such negotiations will continue between the civilian and military bureaucrats at a low level. But these negotiations can be positive or negative. If we look at the situation in which Turkish-Russian relations have come in recent years, I think that this issue can only be resolved at the summit of leaders such as March at the end of February, which evaluates these bilateral relations as a package, rather than separately. If the Putin-Erdogan meeting takes place face-to-face in March, I think that this issue can only evolve to a final conclusion there. The differences of opinion of the parties have already become evident, especially after the Sochi agreement. “
‘Giving utmost importance to relations with Turkey has run out of patience with Russia’
Özdemir reminded that Idlib was not brought to the agenda at the Sochi summit, which was held after the Peace Spring Operation, and the calm process until the end of the year was motivated by the attacks of some terrorist groups. Ozdemir, is more than a year after this point indulgent acts patience had run out, although not of great importance to Russia’s relations with Turkey, he said. Russia’s ally Syria, indicating that encouraged towards fulfillment of the Sochi agreement Ozdemir, expressed the opinion that Turkey should make a serious decision. According to Özdemir, he noted that even though it is small, there is a possibility that the Turkish Armed Forces may conflict with Syria and that the biggest problem for Turkish soldiers is uncontrolled terrorist elements in that region:
“The fact that Idlib issue was not brought up between Erdogan and Putin at the last summit of Sochi summit after the Operation of Peace Spring, in fact, it was a calm process until the end of the year. there came to this operation agenda again with the attack of some terrorist groups. exhausted then no longer the patience of Russia from this moment. Because a country that attaches great importance to relations with Turkey, Putin Chairman private in the Russian government. Russia’s, but up to a point it tolerate, we see that wait over a year for Turkey. in fact there are Russian troops, the attack yielded to special forces began to intensify these operations came to a serious provocation agenda. one of the targets until the M4-M5 highway here see as Russia’s Syrian attached to the currently I think he supported his way to the end, encouraged his ally Syria and will not give up on it. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for the end of the month. Month end Turkey will also have to give a serious decision. There is a small possibility of conflict between the TAF and the regime forces. But for our soldiers, the biggest problem is the uncontrolled and important part of that region, the HTS, Al-Qaeda and the elements created by these terrorists. According to some allegations, they are infiltrated into the Turkish Armed Forces and used and provoked as a shield in conflict zones. I have already understood this from the last statements of the President.
“The US, Turkey S-400 are activated before playing the last card to draw its own axis’
Noting that the S-400 air defense system is activated in April Ozdemir, Turkey in the US Prior to that, so to break its relations with Russia and that he played the card to take its own axis. Ozdemir, but also in some government circles in Turkey it conveyed the impression that they need to move the brake opinion on relations with Russia. While Özdemir wanted the United States to continue the confusion in Idlib, on the other hand, he said that he aimed to prolong the PYD presence in the northeast of Syria, but expressed that the main confusion was in Ankara despite the fact that the US policy to divide Syria into Syria was clear:
“In Turkey, some in ruling circles in some but see the last 3 years the need to develop relations with Russia if it reaches a point where more of these relations, Turkey’s in this relationship allegedly began to bind asymmetrically to Russia, I felt a brake requirement sentiment. So I wonder if there is a pretext Turkish-undermined desired to be Russian relations in the United States, we know that is extremely enthusiastic about it. we know that for several years that deal with this issue and put it into an opportunity to hand with Jeffrey’s last visit. the wonder Turkey ruling in February end in this direction Is it going to progress, or will the problems somehow result in new reconciliation and mapping, as in the Libya issue again? I am of the opinion that this issue will be resolved for now as well. The confused part is mostly Ankara. American policy saw the inconvenience of trying to overthrow the Bashar Assad regime. In recent years, he had to admit that Russia is the main actor in Syria. I think Idlib is more than Libya, if you only ask where the Turkish-Russian relations are at the moment, the only national benefit gain over Idlib. Here again the western camp and Turkey to include the objective of making its ally, we see that implements the policy. Now, the goal of the USA to overthrow Assad has not been left for many years, but it will try its last chance here. The process is very critical, and the S-400s need to be activated as of April. S-400s before they become active again Turkey was obvious they will play their last card for someone in Washington to put the US camp. The last card is played over Idlib. The main purpose here is to take Turkey a hand to his line, on the other hand also greater for Syria’s territorial integrity and wide to extend the presence of the US-backed PYD’nin the north-east of Syria. Because much confusion continues in Idlib, Turkey, Iran and Syria, where the field work if faced with Russia will countries benefit most from the United States. Because he is going to keep his PYD, which he is a protector, in the east of the country. In this way, he will try to achieve the goal of dividing Syria even if there is no regime change. But we see in this that the main purpose in Idlib until now partially successful, the snatch Turkey’s case much closer relationship with Russia. “
‘Turkey and the United States are bothered by stabilizing the attitude of Russia’
Turkey in the last three years on issues ranging energy from the S-400 uptake in relations with Russia ‘asymmetrical relationship’ argument was used but that they Ankara is the result of an independent decision made in accordance with the requirements according reminiscent Ozdemir, who put forward these discourses, Turkey with US They are uncomfortable with their balancing attitude among Russia. While Özdemir said that the USA also has more than one cocoon in this regard, he stated that Idlib is one of these issues:
“Consistently it uses the concept of asymmetric relations between Turkey and Russia last 3 years. I speak one to one with those who put forward these arguments, when I say what your asymmetric mean means, they list the following; Purchase of S-400, S-400, such as dependence on energy … Turkey’s desire to project its own national interests and have taken to address the security identification needs in Turkey. The latest figures were announced on Energy, the natural gas market share in Turkey for the first time throughout the history of Russia withdrew the 30 percent levels. In fact, there is no such asymmetric progress. But those who put forward these discourses, particularly here that the basic intention of some politicians in Turkey, Russia and the US for the first time last 3 years, more balanced, more independent position on the condition that they have heard from the drift. Turkey asked whether a member of the Atlantic camp again. The United States is about squeezing a government that has several cocoons here. The most effective of them was Idlib on the field. We are actually going through this process. If they fail to undermine the Turkish-Russian relations out of Idlib, an important threshold to bypass Turkey. But there is no need to be a prophet to see Americans are very enthusiastic about it. ”
‘Turkey’s jam in Idlib Libya sees itself would be much more costly’
In case of attempt a military move in Turkey, Syria, stating help would not come from the Western camp Ozdemir, this issue of Turkey to freeze relations with Russia and countries of the opinion that as a tool to attract back into the Western camp. Pointing out that the Idlib issue is related to the Eastern Mediterranean, Özdemir pointed out that Idlib has tactical interests and the Eastern Mediterranean has strataic interests, and pointed out that the congestion in Idlib could cost Ankara much more in Libya:
“(A military intervention in Syria, support will come to Turkey from the Western camp or two countries can afford. We have seen after lowering the Russian aircraft this film. Then, Turkey is a kind of when admitted to NATO was left alone. There is no way at the moment especially in further strengthened field in Russia, will take place alongside the NATO countries against Iran, Syria and Turkey. even if you you can afford to war with Syria, it seems very clear. being a military objective here the other political. the political objective of Ankara to freeze its relations with Russia For this purpose, all kinds of pressures and tools are being used in the fields of economy, domestic politics and security through Idlib. directly related. in Idlib interests of Turkey’s tactical but strategic interests I am a person who thinks that he is in the Eastern Mediterranean, in terms of the reserves there. Turkey could be much more costly in Libya where the jam in Idlib sees itself on the one hand, I think. In this way, he is trying to play this card in international public or bilateral relations, diplomacy.
‘Statements from Ankara show that Russian foreign and security policy is not sufficiently studied’
Özdemir stated that the statements coming from Ankara recently showed that the Russian foreign and security policy has not been studied enough, and asked the question “Is Russia wanted to be provoked?” Turkey will find a solution together with Russia on migration from Idlib, indicating Özdemir, positive results in the presence of independent harsh statement also underlined the balance of power will bring to obtain:
“But in the statements from Ankara over the past few weeks, I see that they have not studied Russian foreign and security policy enough. Such cards, trump cards may stop convincing Russia. I wonder whether Russia is wanted to be provoked, this question also comes to mind. Vitaliy Naumkin’s comments in the direction of human affairs can take care of immigration issues, a kind of soft power show. But Turkey really is to meet the migration beyond the purpose of the limit here I think would be a case that could help Russia. moon by the end of this style come from the opposite side of the dual description, from Turkey I think that would continue. is inseparable two parts of Libya, of course, with Idlib. If Turkey if you find a way to way to deal with Idlib in Russia, if Russia or faced through Syria and Iran, would be extremely negative in terms of our interests in the eastern Mediterranean. itTherefore, the association is correct, but the balancing is not independent of the balance of power in international relations.