Coronavirus hysteria cannot shake Russia or Europe – expert opinions

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Although the financial market plummeted to a low point as a result of stock market trading resumed in China on February 3 after the Chinese New Year, analysts see no dangers, either for the immediate neighbor Russia or for Europe. According to them, the “hysteria” surrounding the corona virus can hardly have a significant impact on the global economy.

“At least for the time being, the markets don’t believe it,” said one of Russia’s leading Chinese experts, Alexei Maslow, during the roundtable in the Rossiya Segodnya news agency. “China has been hit by an unprecedented information attack. The number of rumors and fake news that are mainly circulating outside of China is colossal. It’s easy to see where they come from: mostly from Twitter. New authors are always added. ”

However, there is no panic in China itself, the scientist continues. “There is even a stabilization there. People have resigned themselves to the initial fright. The global economy and the markets are actually not affected by the spread of the corona virus, which has now been tackled by the Chinese government, and indeed determined and harsh, but by the spread of panicked rumors. The information attacks on China will serve multiple and political purposes. ”

Does the infection go away?

The head of the Center for Economic and Social Research in China at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Andrej Ostrowski, believes that the Chinese economy is viable enough and is already on its yearly basis GDP growth of 5.5–6 percent come. “Judging from atypical pneumonia in 2003, China has not yet reached the highest number of people infected with coronavirus. It is estimated that it will happen between February 10th and 20th. Afterwards the infection subsides. And you will be completely forgotten in the first decade of April. ”

Ostrowski is certain that the economy will behave as it did with the atypical pneumonia of the time.

“The biggest losses, caused by the fake news, will have to accept the tourism industry and aviation. Booked trips are canceled, flights are canceled. The corona virus will not affect other industries. ”

The chief adviser to the head of the Russian government’s analysis center, Leonid Grigoryev, claims that the size of the Chinese economy and its strict regulation would allow an optimistic forecast as to how China will deal with the whole situation. “In any case, there are no prerequisites for an economic crisis worldwide today: no drastic price increases for raw materials, no galling inflation in industrialized countries, no skyrocketing interest rates, no overinvestment. The rate of accumulation has actually dropped recently. ”Furthermore, the economist sees no reason why“ the Chinese incident with the virus should trigger any global event. ”
Maslow assures that the events surrounding the corona virus will practically not affect the Russian economy. “Apart from tourism with the three million Chinese who visit us, each of whom donates around $ 1,000 to the Russian economy. Even if part of it flows back to China, another part remains as taxes here. It will not damage global Russian tour operators, but small and medium-sized companies that are involved in it. ”

This particularly affects the catering industry in Moscow, Petersburg and the Far East, according to the expert. “But this will have a short-term effect, after which the market will recover in April or May and reclaim its positions.” According to financial analysts, Russia will survive it relatively calmly even in the event of a crisis, unlike previous slumps. The small government debt, the currency decoupled from oil prices and a thick financial cushion would ensure this.

But will Europe, including Germany, be affected?

“How could it be affected?” Ostrowski did not understand the Sputnik question. “In absolutely no way, as the Russian economy will not be affected. China’s foreign trade volume with the EU, in which Germany sets the tone, is a good $ 670 billion. It won’t shrink. ”

“As part of their ‘One Belt, One Road’ project, the Chinese paved the way to the Greek port of Piraeus, in which they invested considerable sums of money,” said the China researcher. “There are now two other ports, Genoa and Venice, that will play a key role in implementing this Chinese initiative. So Europe will be fed with Chinese goods. China will also get plenty of goods from Europe. ”



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