After the vote on 03 November, the eyes of the American people are now on who among Biden and Donald Trump will be the next President of America.
A look at the things that will be interesting to see.
Some Important Information:
- It is not necessary to get the most votes to become the US President. Rather, candidates are aiming to cross the majority figure i.e. 270 in the Electoral College.
- This time several lakh people have voted through the post against the earlier elections. It may take longer to count ballot papers from the post and in some provinces, the ballot papers from the post will be counted only after the voting starts. In this case, it is natural to delay the results.
- Due to the unexpected increase in postal voting, the candidate running ahead may also lag behind. In this case, watch the results carefully.
Some important words of US elections:
- Bellweather state Provinces like Ohio or Missouri, where voters have chosen the candidate who becomes president year after year. These provinces have been with the winning candidate.
- Exit poll : Personal interviews to be conducted with people who are voting. Only a limited number of voters are interviewed in this survey. In such a situation, the results of the exit poll can also be proved wrong.
- Electoral College: Every province has electors according to population. In most cases, the candidate who wins the most votes wins the votes of the electors of the province. These electors later elect the President and Vice President. There are 538 electoral college votes in total. In such a case, a candidate needs at least 270 votes to win the election.
- Projection vs calling: The names of potential winners of each province are announced based on the ballots counted. On this basis, the winner of the nationwide voting is projected. However, the name of a province will not be taken until sufficient data about voting is known. This includes months of voting, exit polls and counting of actual votes.
- Swing State vs Battleground State These are the provinces which clearly do not appear to be going towards any one party. That is, the candidate of any party, Democratic or Republican, can win these provinces.
- Red vs Blue State These are the provinces that usually choose a single party. The Red State elects the Republicans, while the Blue States elect the Democratic Party.
How to know who is winning the election?
Due to the large number of postal votes this year, it will soon be difficult to know which candidate is going forward.
There are different rules for when and how postal ballots will be counted in different provinces.
In such a situation, the results of the provinces will also come at different times. Provinces such as Florida and Arizona begin counting postal ballots several weeks before the November 3 election, while provinces such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania begin counting only on voting day. This means that the results of these provinces will be delayed.
Another reason for confusion is that different provinces have different timelines for accepting postal ballots.
Provinces like Georgia will only count ballots received on or before November 3, while provinces like Ohio will also count ballots that have a date of November 3.
It is now clear that in some provinces it will take several weeks for the final results to come. In such a situation, it is almost impossible to tell when the official announcement of the next President will be made.
This has not happened in the previous elections. You could then expect the final results at 23:00 EST (04:00 GMT). Voting ends on the west coast at the same time.
The results have been coming at this time and in the year 2012, they came just 15 minutes late.
Although the competition was tough last time. Until Donald Trump won Pennsylvania, people’s eyes were on television.
Trends may be wrong
This year there are some other things that you will have to keep an eye on.
First of all, the early trends can be deceiving. The reason for this is that the results of different provinces will come at different times.
In some provinces, individual ballot ballots will be counted first. In such a province, Trump may look forward, as election polls have shown that Trump’s supporters are excited to vote first.
But in some other provinces, the postal ballots will be counted first and will be counted only with the voting on the day of polling. Early trends in such provinces may be seen in support of Biden. Because pro-Democrats will vote more by post than Republican voters.
The concern is also about election fraud. Trump has repeatedly said in his election campaign that this time it can be a fake.
The important thing is that in the US, the incidence of frauds in voting has been very low. No evidence of postal ballot tampering has been found. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, the percentage of voting frauds in the US is between 0.00004% to 0.0009%.
How are provinces declared?
After the voting is over, different TV networks in the US based on their electoral models tell who can win in which province. These models are based on individual data such as exit polls.
These also include the data of counting done during polling.
When media networks feel that a candidate has gone so far in a province that they will not be able to fall behind now, they declare the province in the account of that candidate.
The same happens in provincial and local elections. But this is only the trend, not the end result.
When a candidate is declared the winner of the presidential election, it is the same. In fact, it takes weeks for the provinces to count all the ballots and declare the final result. This time it may take more time due to more postal voting.
In the last elections in 2016, the number of votes Hillary Clinton received for a month after polling day continued to increase, but Trump had already been elected president after winning more provinces.
Why is postal voting delayed?
This year, crores of people are voting through post. This could be double as compared to 2016 elections.
These concerns were expressed that due to the large number of postal ballots, the postal services would not be able to deal properly and the delivery of ballot papers would be delayed. But the postal services have assured that this will not happen.
In some provinces, ballot papers coming after the day of voting will also be accepted. Provided that the date on them is earlier than 03 November. This may slow down the counting of votes.
Not only this, it takes more time to count the ballot papers that came through the post than the general voting.
if What if there is no clear winner?
If there is no clear result till the night of November 3 as per American time, then you may have to wait for several days or weeks till the final ballot is counted.
Apart from this there can also be legal disputes, which will further increase uncertainty. This can also make room for the role of the court.
Provinces to watch
We know that it will take time for the final results to come, but there are many provinces which can indicate in the beginning itself.
North carolina: In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won the province in a very close fight. This time too, the competition is tough.
Florida: In Florida, the postal ballot and the votes of the first voters will be counted first.
Arizona: Here on 20 October, the counting of ballot papers from the post had started. This province was won by Trump in 2016. But now the poll surveys are showing Biden’s edge.
Ohio: Ohio is not only a swing state, it also tells the fate of the new president. Since the second world war, this province has been choosing the winning candidate every time.
Pennsylvania: The path to the White House passes through this battleground state. Biden was born in this province and in the 2016 election, Trump won the province by just one percent.
Wisconsin: Hillary Clinton lost the province in 2016 by a very small margin. Since then, the Democratic Party has worked hard here.
Michigan: This province is important for both Trump and Biden.
However, only Trump and Biden’s name is not on the ballot papers.
Both parties will also keep an eye on the election of the US Senate. Currently, the Republican Party has more than three seats in the Senate.
Trump’s aide Lindsey Graham is in the fray for a Senate seat from South Carolina. He is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Jamie Harrison.
Graham has had this seat since 2003. But he must have lost some votes because of his support of President Trump on every issue.
Republican Susan Collins may lose the seat in Maine. Collins is one of the few Republican leaders who are moderate and hold office.
But they may also have to pay the price for relations with President Trump. Trump is not popular in his province.
Apart from this, American voters are also giving their opinion on many referendums. Public opinion is being sought in California on a law that is going to end cash surety completely.
Instead, the process of risk assessment is being brought before the hearing.
Refugees are being held on ganja in South Dakota, Arizona, Montana and New Jersey. Here opinion has been sought from the voters on legalizing cannabis. At the same time, opinion has been sought from the voters of Mississippi to approve the medical use of marijuana.