India first Covid 19 wave finally recedes seven day average of daily cases down 20 percent from the peak

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With the continuous decline in the number of new cases of Corona, it is believed that the first wave of epidemic in the country is beginning to calm down. Looking at the weekly average, it has declined for the third consecutive week. However, experts are warning that in festive weather, if the people are negligent then the curve may once again turn upwards.

India averaged seven days of daily cases on 16 September 93,617, the highest level ever. Since then, new cases of Corona have been steadily declining, and on Wednesday the average for a week was 74,623, which is 20% below the peak.

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This means that the speed of corona cases doubling in the country has improved significantly over the previous month. On Wednesday, the dabbling rate was 60 days, while on 7 September the rate was 32.6 days. Death figures are also decreasing in a similar way. The average of seven days of deaths per day was 1,169 on September 15, while the average on Wednesday was 977, down 16 percent from the peak.

For the first time since the onset of corona infection in the country, there has been such a decline in the number of cases and deaths. The number of corona cases and deaths worldwide has been seen to fluctuate many times. For example, there is a third wave in the US at this time, but till mid-September in India, the Corona figures continued to rise upwards.

This decrease in the number of cases and deaths has come mainly from the states where the infection was spreading the fastest. Infections have declined in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Delhi. These four states alone account for 46 percent of the corona cases in the country. However, in some states like Kerala and Karnataka, the number of corona cases is steadily increasing.

Dr. Shaheed Jameel, director and virologist at Trivedi School of Bioscience at Ashoka University, says, “Despite the decline in cases, we are not nearing the end of the first wave. There are still 75 thousand cases a day in the country, which is not a small number. However, there is a significant decline, especially if the test is not affected by a change in strategy. But if our testing strategy is in August or early September, these are good signs.

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