new Delhi: A government-appointed scientific committee said on Sunday that the Kovid-19 epidemic in India has crossed its peak, but protective measures should continue. On the other hand, if the current precautions and measures are taken, the epidemic is expected to end in February 2021 and by then the total number of infections will be around 10.5 million. At present the total infection of India is about 75 lakhs. Only 30% of India’s population has developed immunity so far.
According to the scientific committee, in the absence of lockdown in March, India’s total deaths could have been more than 25 lakhs by August this year. Currently, India’s total deaths so far are only 1.14 lakh.
The committee ‘Indian National Supermodel’ was appointed to come up with a mathematic model for Kovid-19, which could throw light on the possibility of an epidemic in India. In this committee, IIT and ICMR were members of Indian Council for Medical Research.
The Kovid-19 epidemic in India has crossed its peak, ie ‘peak’, but protective measures should continue. However, according to this committee, the possibility of infection may increase in the upcoming festival and winter season, so precautions should be continued. At the same time, according to their report, lockdown is now undesirable, should only be on narrow geographical areas. At the same time, activities should move towards resuming.
According to the report of this committee, in the absence of lockdown in March, India’s total deaths could have exceeded 2.5 million by August this year. At present, there are 1.14 lakh deaths in India. At this rate, by February 2021 the death rate will be less than 0.04%.
All activities can be resumed provided appropriate security protocols continue to be followed. If all protocols are followed, the epidemic can be controlled by the end of February early next year with a decrease in active cases.
According to the report of this committee, the case did not increase due to large scale migrant laborers going to their state. Especially in UP and Bihar, the rapid increase in cases was not seen due to the movement of migrants. But if migration was allowed before lockdown then there would have been an adverse effect.
On the effect of lockdown, the committee has said in its report that if the initial lockdown was delayed then there would have been more difficulties. According to the report of the committee,
Due to the actual lockdown in March
By the end of September, 10+ lakh peak active synthetic cases and 1 lakh deaths.
When there is no lockdown?
By June there would have been 140+ lakh peak active synoptic cases and by the end of August more than 26 lakh deaths.
If lockdown 1 April 1 If it were during May?
By August, there would have been 40-50 lakh active cases and 7-10 lakh deaths.
In the festival and winter season, the possibility of infection may increase, in such cases due to relaxation of protective measures may increase. There will be 26 lakh infections within a month i.e. by mid-October. On the effect of weather and festivals in future, the committee says, there is some evidence that viruses are more active in cold climate. At the same time, there is some evidence that they spread rapidly through large gatherings.
The committee gave an example of Kerala and explained how festivals and gatherings can increase the case of Corona. Onam festival was celebrated in Kerala from 22 August to 2 September, and after this, a sharp increase in corona cases was recorded in Kerala from 8 September. In September, the probability of infection for Kerala increased by 32% and the effectiveness of medical response by 22%.
By the end of February 2021, the scientific committee has estimated that if the current measures are continued, there will be 1.05 lakh cases. At the same time, if no measures are taken, there will be 1.76 lakh cases. Apart from this, if the measures are reduced then there can be 1.37 lakh cases.
In India, more than 74 lakh people have been infected with Corona so far. So far, a total of 74,94,551 people have been infected with the corona virus, of which 1,14,031 patients have died. It is a matter of relief that 65,97,209 have been cured in India so far. With this, the recovery rate in India is 88.03% while the death rate is 1.52%.
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