"Vote of no confidence against Merkel" – only chance for the SPD?


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The newly elected SPD leaders insist on concessions from the Union. A renegotiation of the coalition agreement reject the Christian Democrats. Threatens a new ordeal of the Grand Coalition? For the Social Democrats, two political scientists see black.

More climate protection, a massive expansion of investments in schools and roads, more social issues – these are the core goals of the designated SPD leaders Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans. That the two are skeptical of the government is not new. They demand that "Renegotiation" of the coalition agreement, And: If the coalition partners are not open to a new debate on cooperation, they would recommend the party to the event may also be the exit from the GroKo, Esken made clear in the TV duel in November. After the election Walter-Borjans reaffirmed this attitude in the "ARD" program "Report from Berlin". "Then, if the coalition partner's blockade attitude is there for these new tasks, then you have to make the decision that things do not go on."

Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), meanwhile, has been open for talks with the future SPD leadership, but refused to renegotiate the coalition agreement. Merkel is basically ready for cooperation and discussion, "as is customary in a coalition," said government spokesman Steffen Seibert on Monday in Berlin. But a renegotiation of the coalition agreement is currently not on.

Vote of no confidence against Merkel?

"The SPD has embarked on an adventure and it is unlikely that this adventure will end well." The political scientist Prof. Dr. Werner Patzelt the election of the SPD top as well as the demands of Esken and Walter Borjans after a renegotiation of the coalition contract.

As a "dangerous channel for the SPD" called the party researchers these demands. For the Union, there are no really good reasons to accommodate their government partner by renegotiating the coalition agreement. "If the Union stubbornly refuses to renegotiate or is very obedient, the SPD is unlikely to be forced to abandon this Grand Coalition. And then the SPD carries the whole risk of new elections in the face of a failed government coalition, "warns the political scientist.

He advises both parties to create "clear conditions": For the SPD it was time to be honest and to rely clearly on a left-wing alliance in Germany. That would include the attempt to overthrow Chancellor Merkel by a constructive vote of no confidence and to bring about a red-red-green majority in new elections. "This would enable the voter to position himself clearly. But this way will not go very well for the Social Democrats, the researcher believes. "Consequently, Social Democracy will shy away from this actually desirable decision and it will just go on with the decline of the SPD, because nothing has changed in the things that caused this decline." As a major cause of the weakness of the Social and Christian Democrats as well as for the strengthening of the AfD Patzelt repeatedly called a supposed "Linksruck of the CDU" under Chancellor Angela Merkel.

End of GroKo?

Even the Social Democrat and emeritus professor of political science at the Free University of Berlin, Nils Diederich, sees his party in no good position. A "provoked election" would lead to a "catastrophic defeat", Diedrich is convinced. For the Social Democrats it is now important that the new chairmen establish themselves and arrange with the parliamentary group, "which is clearly a majority for the continuation of the coalition". Thus, the new leaders would have to come to terms with the realities, says the sociologist. The reality is that the SPD has achieved some success in GroKo. "If you quit now, you would not tell a voter why he should vote for the SPD now that it's out. The Social Democrats must first develop a new profile, "advises Diederich.

Unlike Professor Patzelt, he believes that the Union must engage in new negotiations. "The question for the Union is who the next top candidate of the Union will be. And second, what are the objectives of the Union in the next election. They have not yet agreed. My guess is that in January they will sit down and discuss what the SPD wants to do. The Union will grumble and compromises will be made with which both sides can live. "

"Big Punch and Judy"

Since 2005, the SPD has the role as great alternative to the CDU lost and is now a small party that serves at best to majority vote in a government as a junior partner. Thus, an early election and the prioritization of a left, green-red-red alliance would not be advantageous for the Social Democrats. "A left-wing coalition would mean that the SPD will again join a coalition as a junior partner," Diederich suspects.

With displeasure the SPD veteran Diederich sees the member polls within his party and calls this a "big puppet theater". "Who calls the people to the election, must also accept what the people want. Social Democratic voters have joined former SPD leader Andrea Nahles and chancellor candidate Martin Schulz (SPD) in the grand coalition, with a majority of about 60 percent. Now, a majority of 53 percent has voted for candidates who are a bit more skeptical but are already moving away from their position. "

The complete interview with Prof. dr. Werner Patzelt to listen:

The complete interview with Prof. dr. Nils Diederich to listen:

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