Developments from Kadir Has University. Dr. We spoke with Serhat Guvenc.
Mac Macron 'has left its mark on the agenda.
Professor Serhat Guvenc by NATO's 70th anniversary it has been translated into actual French President Macro arrows, while Turkey 'stuck in the shadow of the situation. Noting that Trump criticized the French leader before the summit, Guvenc showed that the oddity of launching 'France as the country most in need of NATO' was reminiscent of the defense of this country, although it had not been on the military wing for many years:
"As you approach the summit, other issues come to the forefront. What marked the summit is Trump's critical language for French President Macron. Everyone's talking about it. Turkey was expected to be one of the important items on the agenda, but at least for now Turkey seems to have overshadowed reservations. He's focused on him now. Trump has a very eccentric view of NATO; According to him, France is the member country most in need of NATO. This is quite a proposition, but Trump's reflection is interesting. About 10 years ago, France had returned to NATO's military wing. In 2009, Sarkozy was President. De Gaulle, France in 1966, had removed the military wing. All these years, France was in a position to conduct its own defense. Trump's statement does not reflect the truth. France does not need NATO. But according to Trump, the rest of the world needs these American security subsidies. So France did not distinguish it from. "
'Trump looks at NATO from benefit-cost analysis'
Guvenc said that Trump did not like NATO but rather looked at the alliance with economic cost-benefit analysis, but in fact, this view was expressed in a more appropriate manner by past American governments. Guvenc emphasized that the view that the European security without NATO could not be possible was behind the stance, and finally, he pointed out that the agreement of Germany's equalization to the United States spread over time:
''Trump doesn't like NATO very much. But he is looking at economic utility cost analysis perspective. Things that aren't as measurable as security are on the Trump radar screen. He is looking from a cost perspective. I give this much money, 50 percent of the NATO budget, I say, everyone says put your hand under the stone. In fact, in this sense, it is evident that there is continuity in the attitudes of American governments. In his farewell address, Robert Gates, the defense minister during Obama's term, actually spoke much more politely, but in essence the message was the same. In other words, Europeans preferred not to receive this message. It was like a little creditor ignoring the question when you're gonna pay. After Trump's scandal at the summit two years ago, in the 29-member alliance, 9 members now meet the 2 percent target, before that 2 or 3 members. There is no doubt that there is a gradual improvement. In this sense, Germany is now aware that European security without America and NATO is unlikely. He's making a financial sacrifice to keep America a bit more secure in architecture. But it seems that Germany will take a 15-year period for Germany to rise to 2 percent, and German politicians don't agree..
Stratejik No strategic consensus on Greece's Eastern Mediterranean complaint ’
Guvench, the Quartet's summit in Greece, Turkey would be difficult in view of the Libyan coating on the agenda because of the intensity of complaints due to the maritime border agreement in London. Guvench indicating that the presence of a strategic consensus within NATO on this issue, said that Turkey's aim at forcing the parties to take into account the interests of the latest moves:
"I do not think that the Eastern Mediterranean can go much more heavily. For now, Greece's concern. Merkel, with Johnson and Macron to see whether it will be expressed at the summit. I do not think that the Europeans who are dealing with such a lot of problems will be able to devote much time to the Eastern Mediterranean issue voiced by Greece. The agenda is very intense, this is only a matter of concern to Greece. an agreement with the Libyan government in Turkey. do not force the parties to take into account Turkey's own interests. This is a negotiating position, unfortunately the past few years, Turkey is now unable to express his grievance by consensus. Hard exits, escalating politics is trying to publicize the problem. This is partly successful, and there is no doubt that it creates a great friction. U S-400 starting from the subject matter increasingly in NATO was more than questionable, but on the other hand, we learn that Turkey is also compressed some issues later. Especially in the Baltics and Poland threatened to veto the defense-oriented plans so suddenly that Turkey's unilateral move was leaked to us by Reuters. But today I'm learning from Sinan Ulgen, writing in Foreign Policy in Turkey alliance also renewed concerns about the future of the south wing also no plan turns out to be blocked by Washington. Trump but beware of Turkey and regulations protects American institution that is trying to look at doing things to hurt. Hence the tension and disputes among the allies too. This shows us that there is no strategic consensus in NATO. This lack of strategic consensus appears as disagreements among Allies.. "
'Turkey has to consult with allies while the moves will require solidarity'
According to Guvenc, Ankara's approach to the issues of the issue is a negotiation position that includes 'maximalist expectations'. including Ankara's alliance solidarity when assessing the complaint whether operation of Article 5, it's a once-off as the September 11 attacks on the occasion that run for US and Washington 'rein purpose of' the move, saying Guvench, Turkey also with allies in making their moves will require this solidarity he did not act in consultation. Guvenc gave the example of Syria in this respect. Reminding Ankara that while it tries to keep the allies away from the Syrian area, on the other hand, it has entered into expectations that have the potential to bring the Allies into conflict directly after the Russian plane was shot down, Guvenc underlined the need to follow a policy that takes into consideration the interests and constraints of your allies:
"It is necessary to read the President's messages as a negotiation position. A number of maximalist expectations are expressed. This is inherent in diplomacy. Even if you are in an alliance, you endeavor to promote your own interests. You try to bring the Alliance closer to your interests, perhaps not entirely on your line, but you will come closer to you. President Erdoğan is in pursuit of this, and there is nothing surprising or strange. Only Article 5 of this alliance is the heart, the substance of solidarity in the event of an attack. It was operated once in the history of the Alliance, and it was operated for America after the September 11 attacks. Support for the United States is not only in terms of solidarity, it is also an attempt to hinder American unilateralism, which is likely to emerge. In consultation with the Allies, there is an attempt to lead America to do things. Turkey has reason to wait for Solidarity. But Turkey moves to require the solidarity movement does not really doing in consultation with allies, becoming expects more cooperation from its allies after the occurrence of such results. When the SU-24 was shot down, the Prime Minister of that period had fled to NATO and had not received the kind of support he had expected. Now they're reluctant to enter into a direct confrontation with NATO, although in some countries, even though they are very pleased that despite being given a lesson to Russia because of the opinion that Turkey's policy followed by Russia. It is also in the dynamics of alliances; two are in the form of fear. One fear of being abandoned, so if I'm on my own. The second is the fear, especially if I participate in a conflict you do not want to pursue the great allies. Turkey's Syria policy, such as the inclusion of a conflict over which they have a say in the actual allies when faced with a situation that has brought the question of encounter. We need to communicate a little for solidarity policies, to better explain our problems to our allies and share our goals and tools. always played an active role in supporting the fact that Turkey has developed plans for the threatened northern alliance, contributed. But in the austral issue in Turkey, NATO actually tried to keep as far away as Ankara's had such a policy. Now if this policy is changed, this is a good development for Turkey because it was something that pushes the possibility of Turkey. Then you need to take into account the interests and constraints of your allies, as in the case of 9/11, when you deploy NATO. I think Turkey into a closer cooperation with the allies contributes to come to the point where the wait '.
‘The issue of immigrants does not have much interest in France or Britain’
Guvenc does not see it possible to meet Ankara's expectation of financial assistance at the Quadruple Summit on the asylum seeker issue. Guvench indicating whether France and Britain already directly relevant at this point, Germany may be more sensitive in Turkey drew attention to the initiative:
''It is not possible to expect anything from the quartet at the moment, given the objective conditions. This plan, which President Erdoğan insisted, only concerns Germany directly. The issue of immigrants has no dimension that concerns France or England very closely. Turkey's initiative in this regard would be the most sensitive members of Germany. France has already made a very clear critical position. Similar concerns are raised in England, but Boris Johnson has an election ahead of him. I do not think that there will be a crisis before the election that will lead to such a hardening. My guess is too early to expect a tangible result from the summit. But it is possible to see it as a preparatory meeting on what happens next. And I have always tried to draw attention to the lack of communication and trust. If it is used as a platform for eliminating this, healthier development can be achieved. Otherwise there is no reason to expect a result if everyone speaks by heart. "