Saxo Bank unveils 'shock forecasts' for 2020


The Danish investment bank Saxo Bank has published its "shock forecasts" for 2020. Even if the latter are considered as implausible, their potential consequences threaten the stability of the financial markets.

Analysts at Saxo Bank stress that their "shock forecasts" should not be seen as an official recommendation, while suggesting that investors do not deceive themselves by underestimating the probability of such events.

Oil rising

According to analysts, Russia and the OPEC countries will react to the slowdown in shale oil production in the United States and announce a further reduction in production. After that, the price of a barrel of Brent will increase up to $ 90, which is above all advantageous for Russia.

Moscow could also benefit from the development of green energy, experts say. The special attention paid to climate problems is leading to an increase in the demand for "green" raw materials needed to manufacture means of control of emissions from means of transport. Note the popularity of palladium used in vehicles to improve air quality, of which Russia is one of the largest suppliers.

The "America foremost" tax

According to experts, the protectionist policy of the Trump administration will lead to the adoption ofAmerica firstCalled to restructure the entire tax system to stimulate domestic production.

"Seeing the result of polls predicting a crushing defeat in the elections, Trump loses patience and his administration, in its last attempt to intercept the protectionist theme, advance the tax" America first ". The country's corporate tax system will be fully restructured for domestic production under the so-called principle of "fair and free trade", analysts at Saxo Bank write.

Under this scenario, the White House will cancel all applicable taxes and adopt a 25% VAT on all gross revenues of US companies from foreign production.

Will Trump lose in the elections?

Experts note that the current President's victory in 2016 was won thanks to the voices of white and elderly voters. At present, the largest generation in the United States is represented by "millennials", aged between 20 and 40, who are more liberal than the older generation Z.
According to Saxon Bank's investment director, Steen Jacobsen, the youth-backed Democrats are expected to win by a margin of 20 million votes, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren would be elected US President.

Hungary would leave the EU

Value disputes could lead to a split between Brussels and Budapest. Thus, the EU would launch against Hungary the procedure under Article 7 of the EU Treaty, referring to the increasingly severe restrictions adopted in the country against the freedom and independence of the press, of justice and science, according to the forecasts.

The Hungarian authorities do not agree with these claims and insist on its sovereignty, including the right to protect against mass migration. The "divorcedIs more than plausible, say analysts.

A new reserve asset in Asia

In the context of US threats to turn the dollar into a commercial war weapon, a new reserve asset could appear in Asia, called the "Asian Pulling Right" (ADR). It will become the largest monetary unit in the world and will be worth two US dollars.
Analysts assume that ADR will become the primary means of payment in the Asia-Pacific region. According to them, only a few months after the creation of this asset, the dollar will fall by 20% compared to him.

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