Saxo Bank Forecast: Trump loses the election, Hungary gets out of the EU


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The Democrats will win the next presidential election in the US, the Brent oil price will climb to $ 90 and Hungary will leave the European Union. This emerges from the latest forecast of the Danish Saxo Bank.

"The victory of (Donald) Trump in the presidential election of 2016 was helped by elderly white voters whose share of the total population of the United States is dwindling. The number-largest generation in the US currently includes people between the ages of 20 and 40, who are much more liberal-minded, "the bank writes in its study titled" Shocking Prediction. "

This group is against injustice, inequality and climate change. In contrast, Trump rejects these values, which is why the Democrats their Control over the House of Representatives expand and dominate in the Senate.

Brent oil back at $ 90?

The Bank expects Russia and the OPEC 2020 oil cartel to announce further serious cuts in oil production due to the decline in shale oil production in the US. "This is going to be a surprise for the oil market, and the price of Brent crude will reach $ 90 once again. It should climb the shares of (Russia's largest oil producer) Rosneft by 50 percent, "it says in the study.

Environmental policy promotes e-mobility

Growing attention for environmental policy will boost the long-term interest in e-cars and exhaust control technology in traditional vehicles. Russia will take a favorable position as one of the largest suppliers of palladium used in catalysts, the authors write.

We launch EU Hungary?

The EU's membership of Hungary is described by the bank as a "15-year marriage on the verge of divorce". Increasingly tough steps to restrict the freedom and independence of the press, the courts, national minorities and human rights defenders have led the Hungarian authorities to the need to save their culture from mass migration. "But the EU will just invoke these factors and assert Article 7 of the Union Treaty against Hungary."

Asia is strengthening against the US dollar

According to the bank's forecast, Asian banks with Asian Special Drawing Rights (ADR) will become one create new reserve currency, An ADR will cost about two dollars, making it the world's strongest currency.

"This move will seem to be geared towards ousting the US dollar from regional trade. Local economies will conclude a multilateral agreement and the whole Change trade in your region to ADR's. "

Russia and the OPEC countries, as well as some other large oil producers, aware of their dependence on the Asian market, would like to get involved, the study said.

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