How the US withdrawal from Syria rebuffs the cards for Turks, Kurds and Syrians

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Has the United States abandoned the Kurds to Turkey? Will their withdrawal from Syria revive the conflict or, paradoxically, offer new opportunities to settle it? Invited before the conclusion of the cease-fire of 18/10, Alain Rodier delivers an analysis that remains relevant. Former intelligence officer, he is deputy director of CF2R.

The withdrawal of US troops from northeastern Syria and the Turkish offensive against the Kurds of that country made many people say that Trump had "abandoned the Syrian Kurds" to the Turks.

Yet Turkey is allied with the Americans within NATO. So why should the United States consider Turkey an enemy in this conflict with fighters who do not represent the legitimate armed forces of a nation-state?
In law, it is up to Syria to deal with Kurds living on its soil and its neighbors in order to preserve its territorial integrity and the security of its citizens. And that's exactly what Syria seems to be doing. Following the Turkish offensive, Damascus reached an agreement with the Kurds to deploy the Syrian army near the border with Turkey to protect Syria and its inhabitants.

Behind the scenes, a diplomatic effort would also involve Syria, Turkey and two other powerful neighbors who are in a position of strength in mediation: Russia and Iran. For eight years, the United States has been present in Syria, fueling the conflict without an exit strategy. Why do Trump's critics think the countries in the region can not do better?

This year, the party of Turkish President Ergodan suffered electoral setbacks because Turkey was invaded by millions of Syrian refugees. And Erdogan considers Kurdish fighters on the Turkish border as terrorists. He wants the situation resolved so that the Syrians can return home. Meanwhile, Trump's detractors in the Republican and Democrat parties are so caught up in the permanent war that they panic when an American President actually takes the risk of peace by withdrawing his troops.

The question now is: what is the real likelihood of lasting peace in Syria? Alain Rodier gives Rachel Marsden his analysis of the situation. Former senior officer in the French intelligence services and deputy director of the French Intelligence Research Center, he is also author of the book "Face to face Tehran: Riyadh. Towards the war? "(Ed. Histoires et Collections).



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